And Phil says...

Oh well, Phil says it's shadows all the way down.

Six more weeks of winter.

Groundhog Day 2012

The eNature Blog asks the question: How Can A Groundhog Predict The End Of Winter?

Thursday's forecast is for a bit of a shower--although the sky here at the Aerie is perfectly clear at 8 PM Wednesday.

At 7:20 AM EST Thursday, February 2nd at Gobblers Knob in Punxsutawney, Pennsylvania the Punxsutawney Groundhog Club will be broadcasting Phil's Prognostication. Here.

R U Rah! Rah!

Today was National Signing Day for college football recruits and my Scarlet Knights succeeded in inking the best class in school history. ESPN ranks this Rutgers' class as the #25 class in the nation and better than any other Big East squad. MaxPreps says it's #23. Rivals has it as #23 and 247 has it as #22. Any way you slice it, when you consider the turmoil created by the departure of head coach Greg Schiano to take the same position with the NFL's Tampa Bay Bucs, this was one heck of an accomplishment.

Those recruits who were truly committed to the Rutgers' program and philosophy, as well as the assistant coaches and Athletic Director did a marvelous job in holding the group together.

As for the class' composition, it meets the teams needs. Six of the 20 in the incoming class are offensive linemen. One, is the #3 center in the nation. Two others are among the top 25 offensive tackles. One is an experienced transfer from Maryland. They are all very, very big guys who have been outstanding players in high school and should help revitalize a running game that has been missing since Ray Rice left to join the NFL Ravens.

Add defensive end Darius Hamilton, ranked by some to be among the top 10 players in the nation. (His Dad played 12 years with the New York Giants.) Sprinkle in a couple of wide receivers, several linebackers and a few exceptional athletes capable of playing on either side of the ball and you've got on heck of a promise.

I can't wait for the 2012 season to start.

Forrest Gump dies and goes to Heaven.

FORREST GUMP GOES TO HEAVEN
This just came in over the ole email transom:


The day finally arrived. Forrest Gump dies and goes to Heaven.

He is at the Pearly Gates, met by Saint Peter himself. However, the gates are closed, and Forrest approaches the gatekeeper.

Saint Peter said, 'Well, Forrest, it is certainly good to see you. We have heard a lot about you. I must tell you, though, that the place is filling up fast, and we have been administering an entrance examination for everyone. The test is short, but you have to pass it before you can get into Heaven.'

Forrest responds, 'It sure is good to be here, Saint Peter, sir. But nobody ever told me about any entrance exam. I sure hope that the test ain't too hard. Life was a big enough test as it was.'

Saint Peter continued, 'Yes, I know, Forrest, but the test is only three questions.


First:
What two days of the week begin with the letter T?


Second:
How many seconds are there in a year?


Third:
What is God's first name?'

Forrest leaves to think the questions over.
He returns the next day and sees Saint Peter,
who waves him up, and says, 'Now that you have had a chance to think the questions over,tell me your answers.'

Forrest replied, 'Well, the first one -- which two days in the week begins with the letter 'T'? Shucks, that one is easy. That would be Today and Tomorrow . . .'

The Saint's eyes opened wide and he exclaimed, 'Forrest, that is not what I was thinking, but you do have a point, and I guess I did not specify, so I will give you credit for that answer. How about the next one?' asked Saint Peter.

'How many seconds in a year? Now that one is harder,' replied Forrest, 'but I thunk and thunk about that, and I guess the only answer can be twelve.'

Astounded, Saint Peter said, 'Twelve? Twelve? Forrest, how in Heaven's name could you come up with twelve seconds in a year?'

Forrest replied, 'Shucks, there's got to be twelve: January 2nd, February 2nd, March 2nd . . .'

'Hold it,' interrupts Saint Peter. 'I see where you are going with this, and
I see your point, though that was not quite what I had in mind . . . but I will have to give you credit for that one, too. Let us go on with the third and final question. Can you tell me God's first name'?

'Sure,' Forrest replied, 'it's Andy.'

'Andy?' exclaimed an exasperated and frustrated Saint Peter.

'OK, I can understand how you came up with your answers to my first two questions, but just how in the world did you come up with the name Andy as the first name of God?'

'Shucks, that was the easiest one of all,' Forrest replied. 'I learnt it from the song,
ANDY WALKS WITH ME,
ANDY TALKS WITH ME,
ANDY TELLS ME I AM HIS OWN.'

Saint Peter opened the Pearly Gates, and said: 'Run, Forrest, run.'



Lord, Give me a sense of humor.
Give me the ability to appreciate a clean joke,
To get some humor out of life,
And to pass it on to other folks!

Was that football?

Were you one of the few who watched the Pro Bowl last Sunday?

The Pro Bowl is the NFL's all star game. A collection of the best players from around the league--minus those getting ready to play the Super Bowl or who are nursing injuries, that is.

It's also one of the most excruciating games to watch.

Most of the players are merely going through the motions. For some it's because they are not permitted to go at full speed. For example, defensive linemen can't put on a full rush and defensive backs can't play bump-and-run on the receivers. Watch for a few minutes and you'll see tackling effort about like you'd expect in flag football. (Perhaps that's why this year the final score was AFC 59, NFC 41. Actually quite surprising since quarterbacks and receivers have less than one week to get to know one another.)

And, hey!, why not? There's precious little incentive for the players beyond a week in Hawaii. And no one wants to sustain an injury that could potentially end their already short careers.

The NHL and NBA all star games aren't a heck of a lot better. I find these are saved only by the individual skills competitions that occur in the days BEFORE the game starts. That is, they are saved if you have any interest in the sport at all. I don't. Let's not even mention soccer.

The Major League Baseball All Star game is much more exciting and meaningful. At least there, the game does result in a benefit to one side or the other, what with the winning league having gained an advantage for the World Series. That and the fact that baseball is really a duel between the pitcher and the hitter. It's one on one; Mano y Mano.

Give me the MBL All Star game any day over whatever the heck it is they do in Hawaii in the week before the Super Bowl.

A New Coach at RU

Today, Rutgers athletic directer Tim Pernetti introduced the 29th head football coach, Kyle Flood.

I just watched the press conference and am suitably impressed by the former offensive line coach who seemed to say all the right things. Rutgers is NOT a program that is in need of rebuilding. It IS one of strong academics and improved performance on the football field.

The Scarlet Knights went to five bowl games in the last six years and won them all. They were not the top tier bowl games to be sure, but no other college football team can boast a current bowl winning streak of greater length. In his comments and answers, AD Pernetti and Coach Flood seemed to acknowledge this saying the vision of the program will not change.

One humorous moment that made me smile came when a reporter from the Newark Star Ledger asked Coach Flood about the status of two big name New Jersey recruits who, I believe, have not committed to any school yet. Coach Flood's response went something like this: "Per NCAA rules, I am not permitted to comment on their status. However I am looking forward to doing so tomorrow." Tomorrow is National Signing Day. Could it be that the recruiting class will be even better than originally thought?

I'll be following the signings tomorrow as they begin at 2 PM. Could get interesting.

OMG!

I think my arteries just clogged as I read this: The Super Bowl of bacon

But I don't care! It's BACON!

Included:

Bacon Streusel Maple Cream Cheese Cupcakes.
Jalapeños stuffed with cream cheese and wrapped in bacon.
Halftime Chili Is Better With Bacon, Whiskey …

...with links to the recipes and more!

About that cold....

It has begun...

BRITAIN COLDER THAN ICELAND: NEW ALERT AS TEMPERATURES PLUNGE TO -11C

Okay, it's not 80 F below zero, but for those in the British Isles, it's pretty cold. And snowy!

I wonder what the temps are in East Anglia?

So close!

More about cold from Watt's Up With That

Bitter cold records broken in Alaska - all time coldest record nearly broken, but Murphy’s Law intervenes

Jim River, AK closed in on the all time record coldest temperature of -80°F set in 1971, which is not only the Alaska all-time record, but the record for the entire United States. Unfortunately, it seems the battery died in the weather station just at the critical moment.

Yep. When the temperature reached -79 degrees F at 18:34 on January 28th. Surely it got below -80 degrees F. No?

According to Anthony, the electronic weather station used at Jim River is built to operate at temperatures from -40 to 150 degrees F. The lithium batteries used to backup the solar power used during the day also is built to operate from -40 to 150 degrees F. Not sure if we can blame Murphy for this or not. Seems more like a SNAFU.

From the "Let's Hope They're Wrong" Department

Yesterday I linked to an article from the UK Daily Mail about the low output of the sun and how this may be a harbinger of global cooling. (Forget global warming - it's Cycle 25 we need to worry about)

Today, Anthony Watts of Watt's Up With That posted his take and concludes:

Nature (the reality, not the journal) will be the final arbiter of truth in this. We live in interesting times.

The last sentence is sometimes considered a curse.

Anthony has lots of interesting additional graphs that point to an "Oh. My. God!" scenario. Go take a look.

Might be time to rethink the baseball season that runs into November.

Just saying.

Uh-oh!

Fro those in the lower 48 who are bemoaning the mild winter we have been enjoying (so far!), there is this cautionary tale from the UK Daily Mail :

Forget global warming - it's Cycle 25 we need to worry about (and if NASA scientists are right the Thames will be freezing over again)

The supposed ‘consensus’ on man-made global warming is facing an inconvenient challenge after the release of new temperature data showing the planet has not warmed for the past 15 years.

The figures suggest that we could even be heading for a mini ice age to rival the 70-year temperature drop that saw frost fairs held on the Thames in the 17th Century.

***

According to a paper issued last week by the Met Office, there is a 92 per cent chance that both Cycle 25 and those taking place in the following decades will be as weak as, or weaker than, the ‘Dalton minimum’ of 1790 to 1830. In this period, named after the meteorologist John Dalton, average temperatures in parts of Europe fell by 2C.

However, it is also possible that the new solar energy slump could be as deep as the ‘Maunder minimum’ (after astronomer Edward Maunder), between 1645 and 1715 in the coldest part of the ‘Little Ice Age’ when, as well as the Thames frost fairs, the canals of Holland froze solid.

Can you say "Hans Brinker"?

This is NOT the Climate Change we were looking for.

Go on and read the whole thing, as they say, but have a warm drink handy while you do.

Tough Time on the Banks

A soggy, wet, rainy day here at the Aerie. We had 1/2 inch of snow overnight but then the temperature rose above freezing and we got light rain all day which melted virtually all the snow that fell. We're supposed to get lots more rain tonight and tomorrow. The wind is coming out of the south-southwest and the moisture has been streaming up out of the Gulf along with (slightly) warmer temperatures.

******

Lots of news out of Rutgers today. Coach Greg Schiano has signed a contract with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to be their new head coach. At age 45 it's an opportunity that's pretty damn hard to pass up.

The move leaves RU in a bind, however. National signing day for new recruits is February 1, just six days from now, and the loss of a head coach will throw a monkey wrench into the works. RU was about to have one of it's best recruiting classes ever and had been penciled in by some to start the 2012 season in the Top 25 with excellent chances of winning the Big East next year.

Hopefully the young men who have made verbal commitments to the Rutgers squad will stick with those commitments and join the Scarlet Knights. A good deal of that depends upon who Athletic Director Tim Pernetti gets to replace Coach Schiano. For the time being Pernetti has designate offensive line coach Kyle Flood as the interim coach but Pernetti hopes to have a new head Coach before next Wednesday's national signing day. (More here from ESPN's Andrea Adelson.)

Schiano did a great job in the 11 years he was at Rutgers and it seemed like he would stay forever. But, there are only 32 men that can call themselves "Head Coach" on the NFL level and it's tough to pass on a job offer like that.

Aerie Weather Report, January 23, 2012

Windy. Rainy. Dreary. But WARMING Monday here at the Aerie. Snow is melting like crazy creating a dense fog directly overhead and down into the valley.

Our low temp was at 12:01 AM this morning and it's been climbing ever since and is currently into the low 40s. This won't last long, but, by melting some snow now, it'll lessen the chance of spring thaw flooding. And after last September, that's a good thing.

The same thing is happening up near the Bolt Hole, too. And that is also a good thing for the Mohawk Valley residents.

Done

It took two hours of walking behind the snow thrower to get the job finished, but the driveway is now clear. I'll have to go back and clean the end of the driveway once the snow plow makes its appearance, but that's a minor problem.

The only difficulty I had was having to unlodge one stone that wedged the impeller and stopped the machine early on when it was still a STONE thrower and not a SNOW thrower. An adjustment to the skids raised the front just enough to put a halt to that.

The temperature hasn't risen much as it sits at 20-22 degrees. And there's still no breeze blowing. The clouds don't look to be leaving anytime soon so our chances of seeing any Northern Lights isn't looking good.

Aerie Snow Report, January 21, 2012

As the snow finished falling this morning, Terry baked up a batch of scones for breakfast. Nothing like warm scones spread with cold, melting butter and accompanied by a glass of cold milk.

I can believe we dodged the heaviest of the stuff. This was a narrow (about 150 miles wide) band of precipitation that streamed in from the west from Chicago and through Pennsylvania before hooking northward at the coast. Originally we in the Northern Tier were to be pretty close to the center of this stream but it shifted south and we ended up on the northern shore. Still, we have about 4 inches of very fine, very light, white powder on the ground. With the southward shift, the temperature remained cold enough (mid teens) that the flakes stayed very, very small.

Being as it's only 4 inches deep--and very light and powdery to boot--I'll be firing up the snow thrower instead of the tractor. At least initially. There's no breeze to speak of so blowing the snow where I want without getting a face full in return shouldn't be a problem.

******

Temps are supposed to rise into the 40s this week with some rain in the middle of the week. If I can get the snow down close to the bare minimum, it should disappear from the driveway. Again.

******

We're sorta hoping for the sky to clear before dark. The solar storm of a day ago should hit the Earth tonight and there's a possibility of the Aurora being visible even this far south. Being on the northwest side of the hill with a 20+ mile view has some benefits and we're hoping to cash in on this one.

******

Well, I've recycled by second (or was it fourth?) cup of coffee. Guess it's time to put on the boots and get to work.

Aerie Report, January 20, 2012

After a breezy day yesterday capped by about a half inch of very fine powdery snow, we're enjoying a lovely day here at the Aerie that could best be classified as "the calm before the storm." It's cold (high of 22 degrees and morning low of just 8) but quite still (absolutely no wind for most of the day) so we get what the thermometer says we got. The sun was out for most of the day and disappeared behind the thickening clouds well past mid afternoon.

The weather guys are saying there's snow on the way, however. How much is still in question. One forecaster says 3 to 6 another says 4 to 8 is a possibility. All agree that it will start late this evening--around 9 PM--and continue through the night and Saturday's morning hours.

In preparation, I took some time yesterday to replenish the stack of firewood in the garage. Today, I went down to fill the Tundra's gas tank and refilled one can with regular gas for the snow thrower and another with diesel for the tractor should those beasts be needed.

Earlier in the week we had about 2 inches of snow which was blown and drifted hither and yon. In spots it was nearly 4 inches deep and in others it was blown away enough to expose the larger stones in the gravel driveway. I went out and shoveled it anyway since the temperatures this week have been consistently below freezing. Once the snow was removed, the sun did warm the gravel enough to cause the rest to melt. That or the dry air caused it to sublimate. Whatever. It disappeared so last night's half inch--and the attendant drift--is all that's out there.

No plans to go anywhere tomorrow as we wait the end of the snowfall to begin our cleanup.

Aerie Report, Morning, January 18, 2012

The temperatures rose all of yesterday and even through the early evening hours. It reached 47 degrees at one point before the cold front moved through, the wind shifted and the temperature began to fall once more. It's just 22 degrees as I type.

And what a front it was, too! Long (stretching from east of Lake Ontario to West Virginia) and skinny (only a narrow band of clouds about 50 miles wide along the front), it swept through within a matter of minutes and brought some howling gales and gusts. (Elmira area had a report of a 60 mph gust around 11:30 last night.)

Today we've got some lake effect snow showers off lakes Ere and Ontario to contend with, although the bulk of those will be to the north of us and a smidge closer to the shorelines.

******

Since we moved into the Aerie in December of 2006, the intervening winters have seen us pretty much nibbled to death by ducks--that is suffering from frequent small snow storms of 3-4 inches--from November through January. With a few exceptions, the months of February and March--even early April--are when we get the "big ones."

I prefer to shovel when the snow is 4-6 inches or less, use the snow thrower for 5-8 inches and then the tractor for anything more. So far this year, I've had to shovel snow just twice. The snow thrower and tractor are getting dusty.

And even the shoveling may have been unnecessary since we had 40 degree (or more) days not long after that melted everything I didn't/couldn't shovel. Today there's only a tiny bit of snow where the winds drifted it to a depth of three or four inches and where the sun didn't get to it--yet.

******

Yesterday was the DIL's 28th birthday. She and her pup spent the evening alone in their Portland, Oregon home as my son was out in Yakima, Washington for work.

He's an inspecting forester for the power company making sure tree work and right-of-way clearing is done correctly. With the forecast for one heck of a snow storm in the Cascade and Olympic Mountains (which stretch across his path from Yakima back to Portland) I hope he drives safely--and that includes knowing when NOT to drive. Even so, if tree limbs give way under the weight of snow, he could be busy, busy, busy!

Stay safe kids!

Some thoughts while driving

I took the Tundra over to Athens and Williams Toyota this morning to get the oil changed and have a X-points inspection done. I could have just as easily gone down the hill to Mansfield Exxon, but this was an excuse to get out of the house for a while and I like the folks over at Williams. (I like Ryan at Mansfield Exxon too. He get to work on the Aveo and occasionally the Tundra. I'll see him in the spring when I need to get new tires.)

This is a 100-mile round trip and I had time to do some thinking.

First, I was pleased as punch that the temperature rose from the 31 degrees at the Aerie to 36-37 degrees along Route 6. That meant that the little bit of sprinkle that was falling stayed liquid instead of becoming black ice. (It also meant that the extra half hour I allotted for the trip was unnecessary, but I'd rather be early than in the ditch.)

Second, I'm happy there is a Mickey D's in Troy. Hot coffee and an egg and sausage McMuffin early on a cold, damp morning is a fine thing.

Third, this being a 100-mile round trip I couldn't help but think of how things have changed in a little over 100 years. In 1900, it would have been a two-three day trip just to get to Athens (50 miles) on horseback or in a wagon. Call it four to six days round trip. As it was it took me a little over three hours round trip INCLUDING a one hour period while I waited for the mechanic to do his job.

Fourth, the all electric vehicles being promoted by our wonderful government, having a range of about 40 miles on a charge, would not have even gotten me to Athens before needing to be plugged in. Given the charging time, a trip to Athens and back in a Volt would have taken me three days or more. Back to the future, indeed.

Fifth, those thoughts about the Volt's range (about 40 miles per charge) made me think about the commute of the average American. (Or at least those I know in Northern New Jersey.) While many of the teachers I worked with lived in close proximity (10 miles or so) of the school, some came from 30 to 50 miles away. (A few commuted from Pennsylvania to Parsippany because the taxes in New Jersey were so high. One of these also taught nights twice a week in Jersey City. He really racked up the miles!) Then there were other folks who worked in Manhattan yet lived out along the I-80 or I-78 corridors some 50 or more miles from the city. Some took the train or bus, but an awfully large number did not because public transit was inconvenient. The point is, there are lots of folks who could not even use the Volt to commute from the suburbs because of its limited range. So what, exactly, is supposed to be the Volt's niche?

It can't be to save CO2 emissions. You need electricity to charge the bloody thing and in today's world that's probably provided by coal or natural gas. (Or nuclear, I suppose.) Mining or drilling for the source of energy to yield the electricity or for the materials to build the light weight chassis and heavy metal batteries would create as big a carbon footprint as my Tundra.

The Volt must have been a project dreamed up while on drugs, planned by committee, and executed by a government run bureaucracy (or a union--same thing). Even with the generous, taxpayer provided rebates, it's a lemon of a vehicle no one wants. It makes the Ford Edsel look like a dream car with excellent sales numbers.

It's Friday the 13th...

...so perhaps it's right and proper that we be cursed/blessed with the return of winter weather.

With the wind out of the south as it had been much of the day, it started raining hard again last night after 9 PM when the temperature was still 40 degrees. It continued raining heavily on through 2 AM this morning (temp still 40 degrees) but changed to snow shortly thereafter when the wind shifted around to come from the west-northwest and the temperatures nosedived.

It got down to 23 degrees at 7 AM by which time there was a coating of snow everywhere. How much is difficult to determine as it is snowing sideways and the stuff is being swept clean from some surfaces and drifting on the leeward side of any obstacle.

The weather advisory is calling for 2-3 inches of snow in the "northern and western mountains...especially the higher elevations." With the Aerie in the Northern Tier at 2100' elevation, I guess that's us.

This just in!

The LSU football team is stuck in New Orleans.
Someone painted a fifty yard line in front of their bus.

******

West Virginia just scored. Again.