New Prediction: Not so many Hurricanes

Remember back in May and the first week in June when we had subtropical storm Andrea (eighth earliest cyclone since 1851 and the first May cyclone since 1981) and tropical storm Barry? People started to ramp up the global warming rhetoric and talk about a super active hurricane season. Hyperbole ruled the airwaves.

Well, since the first week in June there hasn’t been so much as a tropical depression across the Atlantic and they’re already revising the hurricane forecast downward. (Forecaster cuts 2007 hurricane outlook)

Why? You might ask. Seems the Atlantic ocean waters are too chilly, they say.

"Because the ocean temperatures have not yet rebounded from the significant drop in late spring, we have decided to reduce our forecast numbers slightly," said Todd Crawford, a WSI seasonal forecaster.

I know it’s still early in the hurricane season that runs until October, but I find it significant that 1) there has been NO, ZERO, ZIP, ZILCH activity during all of June and July (Barry formed in late May and disappeared from radar on June 2) and 2) revisions of and backpedalling from earlier forecasts have begun.

Of course, like most weather forecasters, this one leaves lots of wiggle room.

WSI's Crawford added that wind conditions due to the lack of an El Nino event were less conducive to formation of tropical storms.

Despite the downgraded forecast, WSI still expects the 2007 season to be more active than last year, and added that storm-weary parts of the Gulf Coast could still be hit.

"We feel the general threat to the western Gulf is reduced slightly, with a corresponding increase in the threat to the eastern Gulf and Florida," Crawford said.

So, it’s been too cold to form depressions which become storms which beget hurricanes. He’s still looking for more activity than last year, however, and the “storm-weary parts of the Gulf Coast could still be hit.” I don’t know about that activity level, but that last part is a weasel way of saying “maybe”, “could be”, “might” “sort of”…well, you get the idea.

And just so the sheeple stay edgy, the author of the story has to include reference to Katrina and Rita.

The energy and insurance industries are keenly watching the 2007 storm season after the record damage caused by hurricanes two years ago.

During the 2005 season, hurricanes Katrina and Rita devastated parts of the U.S. Gulf Coast and temporarily knocked out a quarter of U.S. crude and fuel production, sending energy prices to then-record highs.

But of course, they know, they just know, what the climate will be like in 20 years.

BTW yesterday’s forecast for the Aerie, and its surroundings, was for 40% chance of rain, today it is down to 30%. Of course, it’s almost always 30% chance of showers or isolated thunderstorms here in the Northern Tier. It’s the “safe” forecast as sunlight, evaporation, and hills can roll up a thunderstorm most days.

And who the hell came up with the name “Barry” for a tropical storm? If it had turned into a powerful hurricane the stories about weather on steroids would have been nauseating.