Thursday, December 20, 2012

Bowl Season Predicitions, Part 2

The silly season got underway last weekend with the amazing comeback by Arizona (two touchdowns in the final 46 seconds?!? followed by a romp by Utah State. That Arizona comeback cost me one of my picks. (I’m now 1-1 compared to my Sister and Niece who are 2-0.) This week we have the beginning of the remainder of the games. It continues with a trickle on Thursday night and becomes a flood next week.

Thursday night we have the Poinsettia Bowl in San Diego, California. The BYU Cougars (7-5) face off against the San Diego Aztecs (9-3). 

BYU boasts the number 3 defense in the nation. They’ve yielded just 84.3 yards per game on the ground (2nd) and 182.1 ypg though the air (12th).  Three of their five losses were by three points or less (Boise St. 7-6, Utah 24-21, Notre Dame 17-14…all on the road) a fourth was by six points (San Jose State 20-14…also on the road). The Cougars suffered one blowout to Oregon State 42-24 at home). BYU’s offense is a bit more mediocre. Overall they are 54th in the nation with 161.6 ypg rushing (61st) and 247.5 ypg passing (50th).

The Aztecs are, for all intents, playing a home game which should help. Their rushing offense (229.2 ypg (16th) will provide a challenge, but their pass offense with just 178.6 ypg (102nd) will be over matched. San Diego State’s defense will square up pretty well with the BYU defense. The Aztecs have given up just 140.3 ypg rushing (34th) and 234.8 ypg passing (57th) for an overall rank of 42nd in the nation.

With the home field advantage on San Diego State’s side, this will be a close game. BYU has had the tougher schedule and come up short when on the road. San Diego State is currently (12/12) a 2-1/2 point underdog. My pick: San Diego State

Friday night UCF (8-4) plays Ball State (8-3) in the Beef O’Brady’s Bowl in St. Petersburg, Florida.

The Ball State Cardinals have a very good offense (22nd in the nation) gaining 214.3 yards per game rushing (23rd) and 257.1 ypg passing (47th).  Their defense, however, is suspect. Just 103rd in the nation, the Cardinals yield 205.8 ypg rushing and 253.9 ypg passing (86th). 

The UCF Knights have neither an excellent offense (58th in the nation with 178.7 ypg rushing (45th) and 222 ypg passing (69th)) nor an over powering defense (46th in the nation yielding 162.4 ypg rushing (62) and 217.8 ypg passing (40th)). 

Neither team has had a signature victory this season. Despite the advantage Ball State has on offense, the Cardinals are a 7-point underdog, perhaps because the game is in UCF’s backyard. My pick: Ball State

No comments: