Bowl Season Predicitions, Part 2

The silly season got underway last weekend with the amazing comeback by Arizona (two touchdowns in the final 46 seconds?!? followed by a romp by Utah State. That Arizona comeback cost me one of my picks. (I’m now 1-1 compared to my Sister and Niece who are 2-0.) This week we have the beginning of the remainder of the games. It continues with a trickle on Thursday night and becomes a flood next week.

Thursday night we have the Poinsettia Bowl in San Diego, California. The BYU Cougars (7-5) face off against the San Diego Aztecs (9-3). 

BYU boasts the number 3 defense in the nation. They’ve yielded just 84.3 yards per game on the ground (2^nd) and 182.1 ypg though the air (12^th).  Three of their five losses were by three points or less (Boise St. 7-6, Utah 24-21, Notre Dame 17-14…all on the road) a fourth was by six points (San Jose State 20-14…also on the road). The Cougars suffered one blowout to Oregon State 42-24 at home). BYU’s offense is a bit more mediocre. Overall they are 54^th in the nation with 161.6 ypg rushing (61^st) and 247.5 ypg passing (50^th).

The Aztecs are, for all intents, playing a home game which should help. Their rushing offense (229.2 ypg (16^th) will provide a challenge, but their pass offense with just 178.6 ypg (102^nd) will be over matched. San Diego State’s defense will square up pretty well with the BYU defense. The Aztecs have given up just 140.3 ypg rushing (34^th) and 234.8 ypg passing (57^th) for an overall rank of 42^nd in the nation.

With the home field advantage on San Diego State’s side, this will be a close game. BYU has had the tougher schedule and come up short when on the road. San Diego State is currently (12/12) a 2-1/2 point underdog. My pick: San Diego State

Friday night UCF (8-4) plays Ball State (8-3) in the Beef O’Brady’s Bowl in St. Petersburg, Florida.

The Ball State Cardinals have a very good offense (22^nd in the nation) gaining 214.3 yards per game rushing (23^rd) and 257.1 ypg passing (47^th).  Their defense, however, is suspect. Just 103^rd in the nation, the Cardinals yield 205.8 ypg rushing and 253.9 ypg passing (86^th). 

The UCF Knights have neither an excellent offense (58^th in the nation with 178.7 ypg rushing (45^th) and 222 ypg passing (69^th)) nor an over powering defense (46^th in the nation yielding 162.4 ypg rushing (62) and 217.8 ypg passing (40^th)). 

Neither team has had a signature victory this season. Despite the advantage Ball State has on offense, the Cardinals are a 7-point underdog, perhaps because the game is in UCF’s backyard. My pick: Ball State