Friday, December 30, 2011

It's Friday. Now we’re getting serious!

There are four bowl games being played today:
Noon: Armed Forces Bowl with BYU (9-3) vs. Tulsa (8-4)
3:20 PM: the Pinstripe Bowl has Rutgers (8-4) vs. Iowa State (6-6)
6:40 PM: the Music City Bowl with Wake Forest (6-6) vs. Mississippi State (6-6)
10 PM: the Insight Bowl sees No. 19 Oklahoma (9-3) vs. Iowa (7-5)

Starting with the Armed Forces Bowl being played in Dallas, Texas…

The independent BYU Cougars (9-3) will look to exploit the weak passing defense of the Tulsa Golden Hurricane (8-4, 7-1, 2nd in the Conference USA West).

The Cougars ended the season winning eight of their last nine games. Their only loss in that string was to TCU. They won their last three games 42-7, 42-7, and 41-20. BYU’s offense is more than adequate but their defense is their strength. They’re 28th in pass defense and 21st against the rush.

Tulsa has put points on the board even though their offense is only so-so. They rank 41st in pass offense and 24th in rushing. They won seven of their last eight with only a final loss to Houston spoiling their run. In the two games prior, they posted 59 points against Marshall and 57 against UTEP. Besides the loss to Houston, the Golden Hurricane lost early in the year to Oklahoma, Oklahoma State and Boise State.

This could be a close game but the Cougars should be able to keep Tulsa under control while their offense should be able to take advantage of that porous pass defense. BYU 31, Tulsa 28.

******

Yankee Stadium will host the Pinstripe Bowl with nearby Rutgers (8-4, 4-3, 4th in the Big East) squaring off against Iowa State (6-6, 3-6, 8th in the Big 12).

The Scarlet Knights had something of an up-and-down year. They strung together winning streaks of four and 3 games sandwiched around two losses to Louisville and West Virginia. The lost their final game of the regular season in a lopsided, error filled game against Connecticut. They have also struggled and shifted back and forth at the quarterback position between Gary Nova and Chas Dodd. They have had virtually no running attack for most of the season although Jawan Jamison has shown promise. But they have Mohamed Sanu at wide receiver. They have managed to get their pass offense to 46th in the nation despite their rushing offense being just 111th—a position that allows their opponents to pretty much concentrate on the pass. The Knights defense, however, is where they shine. They are 12th in pass defense and, while their rush defense is ranked as 52nd in the nation, they are much better than that. They played both Navy and Army—and beat both--when those teams were #1 in rushing and held them to about half their average. (Even so, that was enough to raise the number of yards per game RU permitted and drive them down in this particular stat.)

Iowa State Cyclones also had an up-and-down year. Three wins were followed by four losses, then three wins and two losses. They beat Oklahoma State along the way, knocking the Cowboys from the unbeaten rank and ruining their drive to a National Championship game. They also played UConn early in the year in Connecticut and won 24-20. It could be argued that Iowa State faced tougher competition, and that that drove their offense and defense rankings down. (Pass offense was 71st, while the rush offense 34th; the pass defense was 71st and the rush defense 94th.)

Look for Rutgers to get their rush game going. If they succeed (yeah, it's a BIG IF), it will allow Nova (or Dodd) to connect with a respectable corps of receivers lead by Mohamed Sanu. On defense, look for Rutgers to create turnovers and capitalize on them. If they can stay away from turning it over themselves, Rutgers should be able to win 31-24.

(I’m a partial RU graduate. Terry and I graduated from Rutgers' CAES, Class of ’71. Terry and I will be watching this one at a sports bar with a crowd from the Rutgers Alumni Club down in Lewisburg, PA.)

******

Down in Nashville, Tennessee, the Music City Bowl pits the Mississippi State Bulldogs (6-6, 2-6, 4th in the SEC West) against the Demon Deacons of Wake Forest (6-6, 5-3, 3rd in the ACC Atlantic).

Mississippi State managed to go through the season not putting two wins together. The only back to back victories came over Kentucky (5-7) and Tennessee-Martin (5-6) of the Ohio Valley Conference of the FCS. The Bulldogs’ strength is their pass defense.

Wake lost four of its last five games and had only two victories against teams with winning records (Florida State and N.C. State). Their strongest asset is their pass offense.

This should be a close game but look for Mississippi State to edge the Deacon Demons 24-21.

******

Finally, the Insight Bowl in Tempe, Arizona will have the Iowa Hawkeyes (7-5, 4¬-4, 4th in the Legends division of the Big Ten) against the #19 Oklahoma Sooners (9-3, 6-3, 4th in the Big 12).

Iowa won just two of their last five games (Michigan and Purdue) and struggled on both offense and defense.

Oklahoma won three of their last five, losing on the road to Oklahoma State and Baylor. The Sooners are 4th in the nation in pass offense.

Look for the Sooners to put a licking on the Hawkeyes 45-20.

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