Saturday, December 31, 2011

New Year's Eve Bowling

Saturday: Five bowls will be played today.

Noon: The Meineke Car Care Bowl: Texas A&M vs Northwestern on ESPN
2 PM: The Sun Bowl: Georgia Tech vs Utah on CBS
3:30 PM: Kraft Hunger Bowl: Illinois vs UCLA on ESPN
3:30 PM: The Liberty Bowl: Cincinnati vs Vanderbilt on ABC
7:30 PM: the Chick-fil-A Bowl: Virginia vs Auburn on ESPN

You'll need a set of fresh batteries in the remote or three TVs to watch all the action as there's considerable overlap in the schedule.

The good news is they should all be over by 11 PM EST so you can tune in Dick Clark. The bad news is that you'll have time to tune in Dick Clark.

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The Meineke Car Care Bowl in Houston, Texas sees the Texas A&M Aggies (6-6, 4-5, 7th in the Big 12) vs. Northwestern Wildcats (6-6, 3-5, 5th in the Big Ten Legends Division).
The Aggies have lost four of their last five games beating only Kansas (2-10, 0-9) by a score of 61-7. Three of those losses, however, were by a total of 12 points. While they are ranked in the top 20 in pass offense, rush offense and rush defense, consistency and pass defense (111th in the nation) have been their Achilles heel.

The Wildcats won four of their last five games beating Indiana, Nebraska, Rice and Minnesota while losing the final game to Michigan State. Their offense, passing and rushing is ranked 35th in the nation while their defense is in the middle of the pack (56th against the pass, 84th against the run).

The Aggies hit the field under interim coach Tim DeRuyter, the defensive coordinator for the last two seasons. He’ll be gone after the game heading to Fresno State. Northwestern hasn’t won a bowl game since 1949. They are 0-8 since that Rose Bowl victory.

Depending upon which A&M team shows up, this could be a close game or a blowout. I’m thinking something in between with the Aggies on top 38-28

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The Sun Bowl in El Paso, Texas will have the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (8-4, 5-3, 3rd in the Coastal Division of the ACC) against the Utah Utes (7-5,)

This game promises to be a contest between an irresistible force (the Yellow Jackets are 3rd in the nation in rush offense) versus the immovable object (the Utes are 7th in the nation in rush defense).

Georgia Tech started the season strong winning their first six games. They stumbled in the second half of the season going just 2-4. One of those victories was a 31-17 victory over Clemson, however.

The Utes started slowly going 3-3 in their first six games. The ended the season with a 4-2 string. The four wins, however, came against teams with losing records: Oregon State (3-9), Arizona (4-8), UCLA (6-7) and Washington State (4-8). Their final game was a 17-14 loss—to Colorado (3-10).

The Utes’ rush defense may be strong, but they’ve not seen an option team like Georgia Tech this season. (They didn’t even play Oregon.) I look for the Yellow Jackets to emerge victorious with a score of 38-30.

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The Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl being played in San Francisco, California has the Fighting Illini of Illinois (6-6, 2-6, 5th in the Leaders Division of the Big Ten) against the UCLA Bruins (6-7, 5-5, 2nd in the PAC-12 South).

This could be the lamest of the bowl games. CBSSports’ Dennis Dodd said it best: “UCLA needed a hall pass to get in sub-.500 because USC wasn't bowl eligible. Illinois comes in riding a red-hot six-game losing streak. Both coaches have been fired. The only way to make this bowl worse -- or maybe better: A halftime human sacrifice.”

Illinois strength is their pass defense (4th in the nation). UCLA averages 190.7 yards per game rushing (29th in the nation). Illinois rush defense is 38th in the nation.

It’s difficult to pick a winner in this one. You might say they are lucky to be here. But UCLA is luckier. The Illini will not do well in this game, but UCLA will do worse. Illinois 24-17.

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Memphis, Tennessee hosts the Liberty Bowl with the Cincinnati Bearcats (9-3, 5-2, tied for 1st in the Big East) against the Vanderbilt Commodores (6-6, 2-6, 4th in the SEC East).

The Bearcats started the year 7-1 but then Zach Collaros broke his ankle November 12th and they struggled against—and lost to—West Virginia and Rutgers before finishing the year with two victories. The good news for Cincinnati is that Collaros will probably start in the Liberty Bowl. If there’s a set back or he struggles, sophomore Munchie Legaux has proven he’s capable of stepping in. And with Isaiah Pead in the backfield (209 carries for 1110 yards and 11 TDs) they’ve got more than a passing offense. Their rush defense is pretty special too. It’s lead by defensive tackle Derek Wolfe and is ranked 6th in the nation.

The Commodores struggled to find an identity this year. They have no obvious weakness—and no obvious strengths. Running Back Zac Stacy does have 1136 yards on 183 carries and has scored 13 TDs for Vandy. Even with those numbers Vandy’s rush offense is only 44th in the nation.

Cincy will prevail with or without Collaros. (Word came out on Friday that he will be starting.) Bearcats win this one 27-24.

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The Chick-fil-A Bowl in Atlanta, Georgia will feature the Virginia Cavaliers (8-4, 5-3, 2nd in the Coastal Division of the ACC) against the Auburn Tigers (7-5, 4-4, 4th in the SEC West).

Virginia finished the season winning four of their last five games losing to Virginia Tech 38-0 in their final game.

Auburn must have gotten their 7-5 record with mirrors. They are 101st in the nation in offense and 76th in defense. They finished the year winning just two of their final three games—against Mississippi (2-10) and Samford (6-5 in the FCS). RB Michael Dyer leads the offense with 242 carries, for 1242 yards and 10 TDs but they haven’t got much else on either side of the ball.

Sounds like a pretty evenly matched set of teams. Neither is that great nor that poor. I’d give the edge to Virginia and say the Cavaliers will win 27-21.

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