Long range forecasts like this one are just a crap shoot. In betting parlance we have the establishment of an over/under line here. It’s based upon averages of years past. Not tat the article admits that this team has been wrong in each of the past three years. I assume it was once by forecasting not enough storms and twice for forecasting too many. (It’s a short item from Reuters on Yahoo News this morning, so I’m posting the entire thing here.)
MIAMI (Reuters) - The noted Colorado State University hurricane research team predicted on Friday that 13 tropical storms will develop in the 2008 Atlantic hurricane season, of which seven would strengthen into hurricanes.
The team formed by forecasting pioneer William Gray, whose long-range forecasts have been wrong for the past three years, said three of the hurricanes would be the most dangerous Category 3 or above hurricanes, with winds of at least 111 miles per hour (178 km per hour).
(Reporting by Michael Christie; Editing by Jim Loney)
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